Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update September 2013

ORLANDO FLORIDA REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

September 2013 

The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, Sanford Florida, Winter Springs Florida, Oviedo Florida, Apopka Florida, and Altamonte Springs Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board ending 

August 31, 2013

(the latest now available)

Inventory 

Inventory rose again substantially this past month to 8,576 from July’s 8,099 and is 5.51% higher than a year ago.  This means that there are almost 1,000 more homes on the market now than there was at the beginning of the summer in June of this year.  This is the 5^th consecutive month that the inventory has risen.  Inventory numbers bottomed out at 6,937 in March 2013. 

The inventory number includes single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhomes.  For comparison: In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market.  Thus, despite the upturn in inventory, we still only have 3.04 months of supply and 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market.   

As you may have noticed around the area, the uptick involves many homebuilders now breaking ground on new communities throughout the Orlando area.  The thing of note with these new communities is that most are now coming out of the ground from raw land vs. having bought out at a steep discount, a project that was already in development.  Prior, the only way to turn a profit was to procure a development by buying out distressed unfinished developments.  Now it appears the national and local builders feel the housing numbers and economy are such that they can resume developing raw land again.   

Single family home inventory is up 5.26% from a year ago and condo inventory is up 4.61%. The current pace of sales equates to only 3.04 months of supply, up slightly from last month’s 2.86. Supply is tied to both inventory and pace of sales.  Six months of supply is generally considered balanced. Under normal economic conditions, anything above six months is generally considered a “buyer’s market” and anything below is then considered a “seller’s market”.  However, these are terms used loosely as descriptors. Buyers ultimately set the market price. 

Sales 

Overall sales were up 4.52% from a year ago but 4.53% lower than last month.  

Of the sales in August, 1,878 or 66.50% were “normal”, 475 were short sales (16.82%) and 471 (16.68%) were bank-owned. The number of normal sales increased by 45.02% compared to a year ago and the number of short sales fell by 38.79%. Bank-owned sales decreased by 25.36%. This continues the now-standing long-term trend of normal sales taking more and more of the sales total than those sales under distressed conditions.  However, for comparison, previous to the housing boom-bust of 2006-2007-2008, the latter two numbers were in the single digits.    

Single Family Home sales increased by 7.89% over a year ago. Condo sales were down 15.90% and villa/townhome sales were up 17.72%.   

Homes spent an average of 67 days on the market in August –  five more days than last month but twelve days less than a year ago. The average home sold for 96.90% of its then-current listing price. “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was up 7.59% from last August, Orange County was down 3.79%. Osceola came in up 3.72%, and Lake County increased by 5.05%. No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were made available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board). 

Prices 

The median price of a home has risen 28.84% from a year ago to $155,000. The Orlando Florida metro area market has now posted positive year-over-year gains in price for 26 consecutive months.  

However, remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Individual categories can fluctuate within the median. However, this month, as was the case last month, prices year over year rose in all categories. Normal (no distress) sales rose 13.92% to $180,000 from this time last year, short sales rose 5.54% to $116,000 and Bank-Owned averages increased 17.65% to $100,000 compared to a year ago.

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index was virtually unchanged at 180.30 from 180.54 and the first time homebuyer’s index was also virtually unchanged at 128.21 from 128.38. 

Each index is inversely proportional to pricing changes. An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that average buyers earning average incomes (adjusted for the MSA) have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa.

Orlando Unemployment 

The latest numbers for Orlando Florida – for July was 6.6 down from June’s 6.76% and unchanged from May.  A year ago it was 8.4%. The national average was 7.4%  

The statistics cited is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member.

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.