Orlando Florida Regional Housing Market Update March 2012

ORLANDO FLORIDA REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

March 2012

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The latest housing market data are in for Central Florida, including Lake Mary Florida, Longwood Florida, and Sanford Florida. Here are the highlights taken from the Orlando Realtor Regional Board for 

FEBRUARY 2012: 

Inventory 

There was a slight drop in housing inventory reported for the month of February as compared to January. This continues the decline in residential inventory in the Orlando market. Seventeen out of the last 19 months has seen Orlando’s housing inventory decline. Currently there are now only 9,253 housing units on the market through the Orlando Regional Multiple Listing Service - down from 9,258 last month.  This includes single family homes, condos, duplexes and townhouses. Last February held an inventory of 13,480.  In December of 2008, there were 22,524 on the market.  At the very height of inventory in 2007, there were more than 28,000 homes on the market.

Overall inventory is down 31% from a year ago. Single family inventory is down 32% and condo inventory is down 18% compared to a year ago. The current pace of sales equates to only 4.99 months worth of supply – down from last month. Six months of supply is generally considered balanced.   Under normal conditions, anything above is generally considered a buyer’s market and anything below is then considered a seller’s market.

Sales 

Home sales were up just under 7 % over last month. 

However, home sales dropped by almost 15% in February compared to a year ago. A closer look at the numbers however, reveal that the drop in condo sales was almost 35% and single family homes almost 3%.

Of the 1,854 sales in February, 738 were “normal”, 618 were short sales and 498 were bank-owned.   This perhaps will re-establish a previous 10 month trend whereby normal sales outpaced short sales. 

The number of normal sales is up almost 30% compared to a year ago and up more than 17% from last month. 

Condo sales decreased by almost 35% in February when compared to last year at this time. The under $50,000 price range accounted for 36% of those sales and have dominated condo sales since March of 2009. Duplex, townhome and villa sales decreased by more than 27% over this time last year (177 units in February). Most fell within the $120,000 - $140,000 price range.    

Homes spent an average of 96 days on the market in February, unchanged from last month and 3 less days than a year ago. The average home sold for 93.14 of its then-current listing price – down from last month’s 95.19  “Then current listing price” is an important distinction since a home may have been on the market with prior price reductions.  Thus, it may have ended up selling for less than the percentage cited from its original debut listing price. 

By county in the Orlando MSA for sales compared to a year ago: Seminole County was down 15% from last February,Orange County was down almost 16%. Osceola came in down 27%, but Lake County has continued its reversal - up again just over 17%.  No statistics for Volusia or Brevard were available (Volusia has several different realtor boards with both New Smyrna and Daytona each having their own and Volusia is officially part of the Daytona Beach MSA.  In addition, Brevard has its own Board).

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Prices 

The median price of an existing home was $110,000, an increase of 15.79% over February of last year and just under 2% from last month. 

Remember - the median price above encompasses all sales. Normal sales rose to $150,000 from $140,000 last month and short sales rose to an average of $100,000 up from $90,000 last month. However, Bank owned average sale price decreased to $80,000 from $85,000. 

Compared to last year both short sales and bank owned properties rose by 5 and 8 percent, respectively, while normal sales prices fell 3%. 

Affordability 

The Orlando MSA affordability index decreased to 271 from last month’s 273 and the first time homebuyer’s index also decreased to 193 from 194 last month. 

This has been see-sawing backing and forth for some time now and is inversely proportional to pricing changes. 

An affordability index of 100 means that a buyer earning the state-reported median income has exactly the income necessary to purchase the median-priced home.  Anything over 100 indicates that buyers have more income than that which is required.   A score of 99 means the buyer is 1 percent short of the income necessary to qualify. When prices rise faster than incomes, the affordability index goes down and visa-versa. 

Orlando Florida Unemployment

In December 2009 the rate was 11.3%. In   December of 2010 it was 11.8%. The latest numbers for Orlando Florida – for January 2012 - we are at 9.5% - no change from December.  The national average in January was 8.3%

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Other Discussion, Opinion, Points and Tidbits.  

Employment Encouraging But Will Obamacare Ruin The Chances? 

The latest unemployment news has been encouraging with new claims down by 14,000.  Also according to the government – the unemployment rate has dropped to 8.3%.

nfortunately our local unemployment rate still remains more than 1% higher than this national average.   Despite the drastic drop in inventory in theOrlandoarea – which in any other economy would be now a housing shortage – theOrlandomarket prices continue to languish as unemployment remains high. 

In fact, many economists contend that the actual unemployment rate is much higher when those who stopped looking for jobs left the job market are counted as they should be and when those who took part time employment or took jobs for which they were wholly over qualified – aka the underemployed.

Further compounding the economic woes is the latest from the Government Accounting Office (GAO) stating that instead of the $900 Billion President Obama touted as the cost of “Obamacare” – the figure is actually now at $2.6 Trillion. 

The latest heated debate on the budget has been how to cut $2 Trillion from the deficit.  Now we find this flawed legislation will actually add 3 times the original estimate and complete negate any savings agreed upon in Congress at the present time. 

Such a rise in the deficit will surely derail any economic recovery.

 Tidbits 

Fed States Plan to Keep Rates Low.  The Fed recently issued, by a vote of 9-1, an approved statement. Though it noted that 734,000 jobs had been added between December through February, that statement included its intended plan to keep rates at or near zero through 2014. 

Florida #1 in Sales To Canadians.  Canadians most often choose Florida and  Arizona to purchase second homes due to their warm winter climates.  Fifty-eight percent of all international purchases could be accounted by just 4 states. Florida led that group with 31%.

Home Owning Tax Breaks. There are several income tax breaks available only to homeowners. These include: Mortgage interest paid during the year for both a first and second home; Property Taxes paid; Energy Credits for some items installed during the year such as solar hot water heater and other qualified energy efficient improvements. 

Arrests for Three For Illegal Home Possession.  A recent scam involving supposed landlords leasing and collecting rent on properties they do not own.  Three were recently arrested in Jacksonville involving five homes being leased by “squatters” to unsuspecting tenants.  

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Statistical Data and Graphs

* Monthly revised sales.

Statiistics cited and the graphical data is provided by the Orlando Regional Realtors Association, of which we are a member. 

This report is intended to be for reference and informational purposes only.  The opinions expressed herein are solely those of New Southern Properties Inc. and are opinions. No purchases or investments should be made based solely on this report, this data, or the opinions expressed herein.  Real Estate purchases and investments are complex transactions. You are strongly urged to consult with your financial, legal and real estate consultants before making any real estate purchase or investment.